Brexit Shows We Need New Sources of Advice

big-ben-bridge-clock-tower-50632

Originally published in The Street

By Stan Bokov

Hours after Great Britain, the world’s fifth largest economy, voted to leave the European Union in a move that took Wall Street by surprise, I received emails offering the wisdom of a couple of reputable chief investment officers at firms where I maintain investment accounts.

One email told me to expect volatility and that the U.K. financial stocks could be hard hit. The communication said maintaining a long-term point of view is critical to weathering volatility. Another message, from a top Wall Street wealth management firm, told me that today was not the time to be a hero by pinpointing opportunities or to panic and sell in a knee-jerk reaction.

Both emails offered sensible advice, but their counsel was tainted by the fact that the day before the vote, Wall Street had ascribed a one in three chance of Britain voting to leave the European Union. Surely then, listening to the people who were wrong yesterday offers me no more insight than taking advice from a weather man, who failed to forecast rain? No one needs to be told to open their umbrella when torrential rain is already falling.

Perhaps then, the lesson of Brexit is to seek out a broader set of voices offering investment ideas, leveraging the buzz of the Internet hive to beat Wall Street at its own game. At TradingView, where I am chief operating officer, investors exchanged ideas in the hours after the vote, and others asked them tough questions to peer review conclusions.

Among the ideas trending on Friday were:

  • A chart from a user called “stream” suggesting that the exchange rate between the euro and the U.S. dollar has significant technical support at around 1.10 and, the euro could climb as high as 1.14 on any positive news. However, with more uncertainty likely ahead — perhaps other nations, such as the Netherlands, France or Italy, considering leaving the European Union — the short-term outlook suggests a higher U.S. dollar and a bearish/sideways outlook for the euro.
  • The S&P 500 has been range-bound for the past two years, according to a chart from “ChartArt,” suggesting that if the index can hold above 2,000, that U.S. equities will overcome the post-Brexit sell off. However, if the index breaks below 2,000, investors should expect stocks to move substantially lower.
  • If Germany’s DAX stock index holds above 9,500 then that market could stabilize after Friday’s intense sell off, according to “sezginelif.”
  • The British pound sold off about 8% after the vote, but it could have tougher times ahead even if it bounces in the next few days. A chart from “Jahid” suggests that sterling could drop to fresh lows if the experience of past sell-offs is to be repeated.

These are just a sampling of ideas being exchanged on by individual investors considering Brexit. Others include how Brexit will impact the exchange rate between the U.S. and Canadian dollars, between the U.S. and Australian dollars and the price of oil and gold.

The biggest thing separating an individual investor from Wall Street’s elite is having access to the best ideas and powerful research tools. However, individual investors can leverage social-media communities for the best investment ideas, instead of trying to beat the combined knowledge of Wall Street alone, and increasingly they have the tools to crunch data at home.

Social media is by no means perfect, and the users on TradingView shared one thing with Wall Street’s experts the day before the vote — neither correctly forecast Britain’s vote. However, after the tally, the community of online investors was abuzz, exchanging ideas and discussing how best to manage investments in the weeks and months ahead.

The sanguine advice I received from Wall Street after the vote was sensible and is worth repeating: Investors should expect some volatility and remember that investing is best conducted with a long-term horizon. However, for those individual investors hungry to dig deeper and examine the investment implications of this historic, unexpected event, the world of social media is just a click away.

Stan Bokov is chief operating officer and co-founder of TradingView, a network for active traders to exchange ideas.